The S&P 500 has no fuel

The S&P 500 has no fuel
Photo by Erik Mclean / Unsplash

In the US, today is the annual meeting of Central Bank heads in Jackson Hole. Everyone is frozen before the Fed chief's annual speech. He is sure to talk about inflation and hint at rate plans.

So far, the US economy is slowing down: the business activity index and the number of orders for durable goods are falling. So, perhaps, the Fed is close to the end of the rate hike cycle, which is already hurting the economy. But this does not mean that the rate will immediately start to be lowered. Most likely, it will "hang" for some time at today's high level.

Is everyone queuing up for trejeris? The demand for them will surely increase sharply now. Whoever manages to buy them right before the Fed turns to easing will be the lucky one. After all, yields are already at a 10-year high.

Will stocks be bad? A correction is unlikely, as money is flowing into risk-free bonds. Besides, even though the Fed denies a recession, it is about to hit business hardest with a sharp rise in interest rates.